St. Albans, West Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

415
FXUS61 KRLX 300157
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
957 PM EDT Tue Apr 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe storms are possible this evening into early
tonight ahead of a cold front. Remaining unsettled through the
rest of the work week. Drying out by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM Tuesday...

The second wave of showers and thunderstorms is sweeping through
the CWA at present, with a line of thunderstorms currently
extending from Washington County (OH) southwestward to Mingo
County (WV). Thunderstorm activity has strengthened within the
last hour or so as it has moved into/across the CWA, with
forward speed increasing. The line will quickly progress
eastward across the rest of the CWA within the next hour or two.
The main hazard will be damaging wind gusts, although some
small hail will also be possible. Any severe threat quickly
diminishes following the passage of this activity, with just
isolated showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder thereafter for
the rest of tonight.

As of 630 PM Tuesday...

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for all of eastern
Kentucky until 1 AM. Strong thunderstorms have already developed
over central Kentucky and will be moving eastward.


As of 520 PM Tuesday...

A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms has progressed
through portions of southeast Ohio over the last couple of
hours, some of which have been strong to severe. This activity
will continue to shift eastward across the northern portion of
the CWA, with the potential to bring strong wind gusts and small
hail. An isolated severe storm remains possible. Further south,
activity has been much more of the isolated variety given the
best forcing for ascent north of the area, although isolated
strong storms remain possible this evening. Another round of
more widespread strong to severe thunderstorms is expected later
this evening into early tonight as the surface cold front
approaches the area. Have updated temperatures, PoPs, wind, and
cloud cover into early tonight. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

As of 130 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:

 * Scattered clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms progress
   through the area this afternoon and evening.

 * Damaging wind gusts, large hail, tornadoes, and locally heavy
   rainfall will be embedded within convective activity.

 * Remaining unsettled on Wednesday as the cold front gets hung
   up across the southern Appalachian coalfields.

After a thin strip of pop up showers sailed through the forecast
area earlier today, a brief interlude of dry weather is underway
across Central Appalachia this afternoon. Not too far off to the
west, however, lies a bowing segment of strengthening
thunderstorms crossing from Indiana into Ohio, aiming for our
far northwestern zones here in the next several hours.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted for portions of
our southeast Ohio counties this afternoon into this evening to
capture the first round of convective activity slated to
progress overhead in response to an advancing cold front. Radar
trends with upstream activity depict storms moving northeast at
speeds on average of 55 to 65 miles per hour, supported by a
strong wind field out ahead of the front. This particular batch
of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts on
the upwards of 70 miles per hour, large hail, and potential for
quick spin-up tornadoes within bulges of the bowing segment.

Local observations across southeast Ohio for this past hour
recorded a temperature/dew point spread in the 80s/60s,
depicting favorable destabilization under ample sunshine, which
will aid in sustaining storms as they venture further east.
Mesoanalysis shows the morning capping inversion hovering over
the forecast area has since vanished early this afternoon,
further supporting an unstable environment for storms to
capitalize on as they advance eastward.

The HRRR has done a decent job of encapsulating today`s
convective trends thus far, and suggests this first band of
storms will clip southeast Ohio and travel along the Mason-Dixon
line into the late evening timeframe. This will then quickly be
followed by a secondary line of showers and storms punching into
eastern Kentucky around 6 PM, which will be firmly nestled
along the encroaching cold front. This will yield additional
potential for all weather hazards in severe storms, especially
across locations that do not receive the first round of today`s
activity. Locally heavy downpours may also impose high water
issues in spots.

The cold front sags into the forecast area overnight, preserving
nighttime showers and possible storms heading into midweek. The
boundary is slated to drape through the southern coalfields and
become stationary on Wednesday, confining the bulk of
precipitation to areas south of the I-64 corridor. This
unsettled weather pattern then rules the roost for the second
half of the work week, with a generalized thunder risk for
Wednesday and beyond into the short term forecast period.
Temperatures will tumble down closer to normal values for this
time of year in response to the cold front`s proximity to the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1223 PM Tuesday...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible again on Thursday as the
stalled frontal boundary lifts back to the north as a warm front.
Models are projecting 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE building by 18Z with
weak to marginal 0-6 km shear (25-30 kts). Aside from a weak 500-mb
vort max approaching from eastern Kentucky during the afternoon,
there is not a lot of forcing expected across our region to trigger
widespread severe weather. The best forcing will be well to the
west, across Illinois, Indiana and western Kentucky ahead of a more
potent vort. max. Therefore, the overall threat for severe weather
should be low Thursday, and the more likely scenario will be garden-
variety thunderstorms across the region. A few of those storms could
contain locally damaging wind gusts.

By Friday morning, a cold front will cross the region from the west,
along with a more potent 500-mb vort. max. The threat for severe
weather is questionable, because there may not be enough time for
sufficient destabilization depending on the exact timing of the
frontal passage. Showers and general thunderstorms should be the
theme Friday, with perhaps a few of those storms containing locally
damaging wind gusts once again.

The threat of flooding looks relatively low Thursday and Friday, and
the main risk will be training thunderstorms, or if thunderstorms
move over low-lying and urban areas. A marginal risk of excessive
rainfall is currently outlooked by WPC.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1223 PM Tuesday...

A secondary cold front and a 500-mb trough axis will cross Saturday
morning with lingering showers across the region. There`s still some
uncertainty how long showers last Saturday, with some models show
drying air approaching from the west by Saturday afternoon and
others keeping a saturated low-level airmass through 00Z Sunday. We
kept likely PoPs in the forecast Saturday morning, gradually
reducing to chance PoPs by the evening.

High pressure will build back into the area Sunday with dry weather
returning. The air will feel quite cool in a postfrontal airmass
with highs only in the 60s. Monday will turn a bit milder as high
pressure expands and slides farther to the east.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 810 PM Tuesday...

Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this
evening into early tonight ahead of an approaching cold front.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are just now entering the
far western portion of the forecast area, and will gradually
shift east throughout the evening into tonight. Strong wind
gusts, small hail, and locally heavy rain are all possible.
Activity will become confined in/near the mountains later
tonight, gradually becoming more of the isolated variety.
IFR/MVFR VSBY is expected with this activity, along with a
gradual reduction in CIGs to MVFR and perhaps IFR later tonight
with stratus. Some patchy fog development could also occur later
tonight resulting in MVFR VSBY, particularly if any breaks in
the clouds develop. Given low confidence, this has largely been
left out of the TAFs.

Isolated showers and a few storms are possible on Wednesday
across southern WV and southwest VA as a frontal boundary
lingers across the area, with mainly dry weather expected
elsewhere. Brief MVFR VSBY restrictions could occur at BKW.
IFR/MVFR CIGs at dawn across much of the area will gradually
lift to VFR area-wide by mid/late afternoon.

Southwest flow this evening will gradually veer to N or NNE
overnight for areas north of the front. Light and variable flow
is expected during the day on Wednesday across the region.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/intensity of restrictions overnight
into Wednesday morning with showers/storms and low stratus could
vary from the forecast. Fog development overnight could be more
extensive then currently anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/30/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Wednesday night with valley fog,
particularly in/near the mountains. Localized IFR conditions
are possible with showers and storms at times on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/GW/JMC
NEAR TERM...MEK/RPY/GW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GW